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External factors to play big role in GDP growth

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HELP University economist Paolo Casadio believes the prevailing global economic challenges and uncertainties will disrupt the recovery trajectory in Malaysia and other countries around the world.

KUALA LUMPUR: Economists are cautious about the outlook of the economy in the second half of 2022, in light of enduring challenges such as the Russia-Ukraine war, soaring inflation, supply chain disruptions and the weaker ringgit.

HELP University economist Paolo Casadio believes the prevailing global economic challenges and uncertainties will disrupt the recovery trajectory in Malaysia and other countries around the world.

“We estimate Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for 2022 to be 3.5% in the baseline scenario (50% probability), implying an economic contraction in the second and third quarters of this year,” he told StarBiz.

Casadio noted that the slowdown of China during the second quarter of the year already had a significant impact on exports. This, he said, will result in a contraction of growth on a quarterly basis.

“In a risk scenario (40% probability), considering a ‘catastrophe’ happening in the international economic and financial system, we consider another contraction happening in the third quarter and probably in the fourth quarter as well, resulting in a full-blown recession. This will not affect Malaysia only, but it will be worldwide.”

In predicting Malaysia’s GDP outlook for the second half of 2022, Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams forecasts three types of scenarios.

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In predicting Malaysia’s GDP outlook for the second half of 2022, Malaysia University of Science and Technology professor Geoffrey Williams forecasts three types of scenarios.

“The upside scenario is where GDP is expected to grow 5% this year, as forecast by the government and Bank Negara. This is based on the assumption that everything will go smoothly and converge to a pre-pandemic scenario.

“We believe there is a 10% probability of this scenario occurring.”

In a baseline scenario (with a 50% probability), Williams said there could be “some persisting international factors” that would result in a downward revision of growth in main parts of the world.

Finally, in a downside scenario (40% probability), Williams cautioned that this could be some “catastrophe” affecting the international economy.

“The catastrophic events can be many – geopolitical, with an extension of the war, financial, with a stock market or a dollar crash, political turmoil especially in the United States before the mid-term elections or economic, with a full-blown recession in some European countries.”

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